MLB Season Preview: No. 26 New York Mets

(The countdown continues, check in on No. 27 Oakland right here.)

The biggest addition to the Mets this summer was actually shortening the outfield walls. That’s all you need to know about the state of the 2012 New York Mets.

To be fair, the Mets aren’t that bad. Their No. 26 position on this countdown has more to do with the strength of the rest of the NL East, and less to do with the Mets. The Phillies and the Braves always contend for the NL East title, but the Marlins and Nationals have made big additions to their teams and the NL East is as competitive as ever.

The biggest loss of the offseason was losing shortstop Jose Reyes in free agency. (It hurts even worse considering he went to a divisional opponent, the Marlins.) To fill his spot, the Mets will look to Ruben Tejada and Ronny Cedeno. I’m not the best at math, but I think the equation goes like this: Tejada+Cedeno ≠ Reyes.

Reason(s) for Optimism: The bullpen. The bullpen looks like it will be in good shape with the additions of Jon Rauch and Frank Francisco. Mets fans should also be optimistic because Johan Santana may finally be healthy. A healthy Santana, along with R.A. Dickey and Jon Niese, gives the Mets a solid rotation that has a chance to surprise people.

Reason(s) for Concern: Relying on Johan Santana. Santana is finally getting healthy, but that doesn’t mean he will be healthy when the season starts. Another obvious concern is how the Mets will replace Jose Reyes.

Best Possible Scenario: David Wright, Jason Bay and Johan Santana all stay healthy. With a healthy team, the Mets stay competitive all year and have a chance at one of the Wild Card spots.

Worst Possible Scenario: No one can replace Jose Reyes and Reyes’ new team, the Marlins, pass the Mets to win the NL East. If the Mets struggle early, some key players (most notably, David Wright) will be put on the trading block.

Chances of seeing the Mets in the playoffs: 14 percent. For the 2012 Mets, there is no in between. Either they will contend for an NL East title, or they will be no where near the playoffs. With all the solid teams in the East, I’ll bank on a poor year from the Mets.